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Melbourne Cup Predictions 2018 | Predicting the Winner

Are there clues in the past to predict the winner of the 2018 Melbourne Cup?

While we don’t have a time machine to go forward in time to see which horse wins the Melbourne Cup in 2018 or a Spots Almanac including 2018 race results…

Source: giphy.com

but perhaps we can look back on the last 17 years of Melbourne Cup winners to see if any trends can be identified to predict the 2018 Melbourne Cup winner.

Melbourne Cup Winners Since 2000

YearWinning HorseJockeyTrainerColourSexAgeNo.BarWgt (kg)
2017RekindlingCorey BrownJoseph O’BrienBayStallion (Male)422451.5
2016AlmandinKerrin McEvoyRobert HickmottBayGelding (Male)7171752
2015Prince of PenzanceMichelle PayneDarren WeirBayGelding (Male)619153
2014ProtectionistR. MooreAndreas WohlerBayStallion (Male)551056.5
2013FiorenteD.OliverG. WaterhouseBrownStallion (Male)66555
2012Green MoonB. PrebbleR. HickmottBayStallion (Male)614553.5
2011DunadenC. LemaireM. DelzanglesBayStallion (Male)631354.5
2010AmericainG. MosseA. Royer DupreBrownStallion (Male)681454.5
2009ShockingC. BrownM. KavanaghBayStallion (Male)4212251
2008ViewedB. ShinnJ.B. CummingsBayStallion (Male)510853
2007EfficientM. RoddG. RogersonGreyGelding (Male)461054.5
2006Delta BluesY. IwataK. SumiiBayStallion (Male)621056
2005Makybe DivaG. BossL. FreedmanBayMare (Female)711458
2004Makybe DivaG. BossL. FreedmanBayMare (Female)65755.5
2003Makybe DivaG. BossD. HallBayMare (Female)5121451
2002Media PuzzleD. OliverD. WeldChestnutGelding (Male)614352.5
2001EtherealS. SeamerS. LaxonBayMare (Female)4131352
2000BrewK. McEvoyM. MaroneyBayGelding (Male)6242249

Melbourne Cup Winner Trends

  • The last 4 years in a row a Bay colour horse has won the Melbourne Cup.
  • 77% of the winners have been Bay in colour with only 1 grey and 2 brown winning.
  • Horses 6 years old have won the Melbourne Cup 9 times with the next closest being 4 year olds winning 4 times.
  • Only 2 horses 7 years old have won the Melbourne Cup since 2000 suggesting 7 is too old and past their prime.
  • Lucky barriers 10 and 14 have resulted in 3 Melbourne Cup winners each, 5, 13 and 22 have generated 2 Melbourne Cup winners each.
  • Only 3 times has a horse won the Melbourne Cup in the last 17 years sharing a number with a previous winner. Only numbers 5, 6 and 14 have won twice. Suggesting the 2018 winner could be numbered 4, 7, 9, 11, 15, 16, 18, 20 or 23.
  • Oliver, Brown, McEvoy and Boss are the only Jockey’s to have won in multiple Melbourne Cups.
  • 67% of the winners have been between 52 and 55kgs.
  • Males are the king of the Melbourne Cup winning 14 times since 2000, with stallions winning 9 of those. A Mare (female) hasn’t won since Makybe Diva in 2005.

Predicting the 2018 Melbourne Cup Winner

Please wait while mathing…

Source: giphy.com

For the best odds based on previous winners you would need to look for a horse that ticks the following:

  • Colour: Bay
  • Age: 6 years old
  • Jockey: Either Oliver, Brown, McEvoy or Boss
  • Horses number: 4, 7, 9, 11, 15, 16, 18, 20 or 23
  • Barrier number: 10 or 14
  • Weight: Between 52-55kg no lighter, no heavier
  • Sex: Male preferably Stallion

So which horse do we think will win the Melbourne Cup 2018 based on the above?

Please wait while we crunch the numbers…

Source: giphy.com

Marmelo ($16 as of 4/11) will win the Melbourne Cup!

  • ✅ Colour: Bay 
  • ✅ Age: 6 years old
  • Jockey: Either Oliver, Brown, McEvoy or Boss
  • ✅ Horses number: 4, 7, 9, 11, 15, 16, 18, 20 or 23
  • ✅ Barrier number: 10 or 14
  • ✅ Weight: Between 52-55kg no lighter, no heavier
  • ✅ Sex: Male preferably Stallion

The only box Marmelo doesn’t tick is the jockey – however, if you jump over to our Melbourne Cup Form Guide you will see that Hugh Bowman is the jockey for Marmelo, with Bowman considered one of Australia’s best big race jockeys. Most notably Bowman has been the jockey for the champion horse Winx. Bowman has gone on to state that Winx has made me a better ‘Melbourne Cup jockey’.

But who knows – as the Melbourne Cup is one of the hardest races to tip a winner these stats may be useless, or they could be your ticket to a big race day win!

Happy punts!

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