AFL Round 23 Preview: The Penultimate Round

Round 23 was the greatest round in recent memory. 

Tight finishes, unexpected blowouts and a goal after the siren made it so. 

The round proved the competition has never been more unpredictable, with finals places still uncertain with just two games to go. 

While the Eagles can’t make a dint in September, they’ve made fans proud with consecutive wins over the past couple of weeks. Fremantle, who can play finals footy, have done the opposite. They’ve lost consecutive games and are now fighting to keep a top-eight spot. 

The penultimate round begins this Friday, and footy fans just can’t wait. 

Let’s take a look at what to expect. 

Win

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Games To Watch

Essendon vs. Sydney (Marvel Stadium, Friday Night)

It’s do-or-die for the Bombers this week. 

After last week’s devastating loss to Gold Coast after the siren, 10th-placed Essendon must win. They’re two points outside the eight and have lost seven of their past 10 matches. 

The Swans are keen for victory also, with four points here practically securing first place on the ladder.

Sydney’s confidence is sky-high too after kicking the last five goals of the game to pip Collingwood by three points last week. In saying that, they did have a poor start to the game, so will need to be ready from the first bounce if they want to prevent the desperate Dons from causing an upset. 

PREDICTION: The Swans are first for a reason, but their form has been scratchy of late. They’re vulnerable to an upset loss, although they have won five of their past six games against Essendon. There is so much on the line for the Bombers, but they’ve let the fans down too many times before. Sydney should win. – Swans by 13 points

Collingwood vs. Brisbane (MCG, Saturday Afternoon)

Both sides are coming off a loss, but it’s the Pies that will be the more desperate of the two … just. 

Collingwood’s finals chances are hanging by a thread, sitting four points outside the eight in 10th place. After giving up a 27-point lead in the final term to the Swans last week, the reigning premier’s season looks all but done. 

A win here keeps their chances alive. 

It won’t be easy against Brisbane who, up until last week, put together nine-straight wins to announce themselves as one of the flag favourites. GWS got the better of the Lions in their most recent game by 18 points, leaving them in fifth place on the ladder. 

They’ll be hungry for another win here to jump back into the top four and try and secure a home final. 

It will be the second time the 2023 grand finalists square off this season, with Collingwood taking the win by 20 points in Round 3. 

PREDICTION: It’s tough to call this one, being at the MCG, but Brisbane should win. The Lions are a much better side and will be been to bank a win at the ‘G before finals. – Lions by 10 points

Fremantle preview

Last week: 

It was yet another devastating defeat for Fremantle, going down by 11 points to Geelong at Optus Stadium last round.  

The Dockers led early in the final term and had chances to shut the game down. 

But the Cats and Patrick Dangerfield, who was best on ground, found a way through, kicking the final two goals of the match to secure the win. 

The loss puts Freo in sixth place on the ladder, now in danger of missing finals completely.  

This week:

Fremantle plays GWS at ENGIE Stadium on Saturday afternoon, who are fresh off a confidence-boosting 18-point victory over Brisbane last week. 

The Giants were down by 30 points at quarter time, and then 15 early in the final term, but still found a way to storm past the Lions to take the win. 

They now have the longest current winning streak in the AFL with six. It puts them in third place on the ladder, just four points behind Sydney in first. 

A win here would basically guarantee a double chance in the finals.

Talking points: 

Fast start 

The Dockers conceded the first four goals of the game to Geelong last week, putting the home side on the backfoot from the offset. 

It took a fair effort to work back into the game, and there’s an argument that a better start would have resulted in a Fremantle win. 

The good news for the Dockers, is that GWS had a bad start last week too – down by five goals to Brisbane after the opening term. So Justin Longmuir will know there’s an opportunity against the upcoming opposition. 

Start the game well, and it’s a different ball game. 

Wasted times

It’s mentioned nearly every week, but the Dockers need to take their opportunities. 

Despite having more inside 50s and time in possession, Fremantle lost the game. 

The Dockers managed just 17 shots from 50 inside 50s, and had 11 more entries in the third quarter, resulting in a lead of just four points at the final break. 

It cost them the match.

“We weren’t able to execute when it counted – I think it’s as simple as that,” Jordan Clarke said post game. 

You can say that again. 

Pressure, pressure, pressure 

Pressure is the keyword this week. 

With the season basically on the line, can the Dockers deliver away from home? 

Just two weeks ago, Fremantle was looking at a top-four finish. They’re now looking to keep their season alive, and the fans aren’t happy. 

Another form of pressure they’ll need to concentrate on, is tackling pressure. 

The Dockers were poor last round, managing 22-less tackles than Geelong for the game. The Cats out-hunted them, and it showed on the scoreboard at the end of the day.

GWS is second in the league for tackles, while Freo ranks 15th. 

Something as simple as pressure could be the difference this week. 

PREDICTION: It’s another tough game to call. Fremantle has won three of the past four matches between the two sides, but they’ve also lost three of their past four games outside of Perth. GWS looks like the hottest team in the competition right now, so they’ll be extremely hard to stop. Can’t tip against the Giants. – GWS by 3 points

West Coast preview

Last week: 

It’s happy days at West Coast with Jarrad Schofield notching up his second-consecutive win as interim coach. 

The Eagles trailed North Melbourne by a seemingly unassailable 25-point deficit in the third quarter, before storming back to pinch a five-point win from nowhere. 

Oscar Allen kicked the match-winning goal with just 18 second to play, handing the Eagles their fifth win of the year. 

The thrilling comeback-victory at Blundstone Arena in Hobart will be one surely etched in the memories of the loyal fans for years to come.

This week: 

The Eagles take on Carlton at Optus Stadium this Sunday afternoon. 

Funnily enough, punters feel West Coast has a genuine chance of winning this one. 

The Blues were absolutely slaughtered against Hawthorn by 74-point last week, losing key stars in the process. 

They’ve now dropped to ninth on the ladder, decimated by injury, fighting to keep their season alive. 

It’s all to play for this week, in a game that could really go either way. 

Talking points: 

Three in a row for Scho? 

All of a sudden, the Eagles look like a genuinely good team. And a third-consecutive victory could give interim coach Jarrad Schofield a real shot at securing the top job permanently. 

Schofield has helped West Coast record back-to-back wins over Gold Coast and North Melbourne, giving the side renewed energy in the process. 

The players seem to love and respect him, while a victory against Carlton could prove he’s capable of executing a decent game plan against good opposition (despite the Blues’ injury list). 

Nathan Buckley, Josh Carr, Dean Cox, and Jaymie Graham have reportedly all pulled out of the race for the West Coast coaching gig, so a victory here could really do wonders. 

Co-captain courageous 

Oscar Allen had a poor first half, and the fans on social media didn’t miss it. 

But the courage of the key forward enabled him to turn the game around completely in the second half, almost winning the game off his own boot. 

Allen kicked five goals, including the match-winner, as well as a team-high 10 score involvements, eight contested possessions and five marks inside 50.

The Blues gave up 21 more inside 50s last week and allowed 20 marks to be taken in their defensive arc. 

If similar opportunities can be allowed to Allen this week, the Blues will be in trouble. 

Defensive dominance 

The Blues are absolutely decimated with injury – especially in their front half.

They’ve got a staggering 17 players on the injury list, including Charlie Curnow (ankle), Harry McKay (quad), Adam Saad (hamstring), Lachie Fogarty (collarbone), Jordan Boyd (adductor) and Jack Martin (hamstring).

The injuries to Curnow and McKay, especially, will have Eagles defenders licking their lips. 

Defender Jeremy McGovern has been immense this season, and after another strong performance last week, will be keen to cash-in on the Blues’ bashed-up forwardline. 

McGovern had 25 disposals and 11 rebounds last week, and will look to replicate similar numbers. 

West Coast fans have also been impressed with defenders Reuben Ginbey, Brady Hough and Harvey Johnson, who will also be out to further their development with strong performances this week. 

It could be a big day for the backline. 

PREDICTION: The Blues are travelling and are down too many troops. The West Coast win looks highly probable. – Eagles by 2 points

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