After 24 rounds and four weeks of finals, the last Saturday in September has arrived. The Geelong Cats and Brisbane Lions will collide at the MCG on September 27, with history, redemption, and premiership glory up for grabs.
In Perth, it’s a mix of nerves and excitement. Cats and Lions fans will be bracing for every twist, while the rest of us are simply hoping for a close one — unlike last year’s blowout. Whether you’re parked on the couch with the BBQ smoking, joining a watch party around town, or testing your luck on TABtouch, Grand Final day always delivers.
But before we get to predictions and Norm Smith favourites, let’s rewind through the season and see how these two have matched up.
Geelong vs Brisbane in 2025
These two clubs have already traded blows three times this season — and each clash revealed something different.
- Round 3 (The Gabba): Brisbane 10.10 (70) def Geelong 9.7 (61)
- Round 15 (Kardinia Park): Brisbane 14.8 (92) def Geelong 6.15 (51)
- Qualifying Final (MCG): Geelong 16.16 (112) def Brisbane 11.8 (74)
Brisbane’s Round 3 win at the Gabba was built on a stunning second-half turnaround. Trailing Geelong by 32 points late in the second term, the Lions dominated after half-time with 39 inside 50s to 14. Hugh McCluggage (30 disposals) and Will Ashcroft (33 and a goal) led the midfield surge, while Harris Andrews controlled the backline. Super sub Bruce Reville provided a spark with a goal and an assist in quick succession, flipping momentum. Despite Tom Atkins limiting Lachie Neale, Brisbane’s weight of pressure and cleaner ball use after the break carried them to a deserved nine-point win.
Brisbane’s Round 15 victory at Kardinia Park was a statement 41-point win — their first at the venue since 2003. The Lions spoiled Patrick Dangerfield’s 350th celebrations by booting the first four goals and never letting Geelong recover. Logan Morris starred with five goals, while Cam Rayner was dominant around the contest, adding 3.2 and his characteristic brute force through midfield. Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft controlled possession, with Brisbane leading uncontested ball by 32 and slicing Geelong apart on the outside. Despite Jeremy Cameron kicking four, the Cats’ 6.15 inaccuracy proved costly as the Lions dismantled them with efficiency.
As they say, championships aren’t won in-season. Geelong’s qualifying final win was a statement of control, built on Ollie Dempsey’s breakout three-goal, 25-disposal game and Jeremy Cameron’s dominant first quarter. The Cats steadied after Brisbane briefly closed within two points, unleashing a four-goal burst before half-time and never looking back. Max Holmes’ running power and Tom Stewart’s long-range goal underlined their dominance, while the Irish duo O’Connor and Mullin clamped Cam Rayner and Hugh McCluggage. Although Rayner threatened with three goals, including two from controversial frees, it was a fleeting spark. Geelong ran away 38-point winners.
Did you know about the Qualifying Final curse?
Grand Finals have a way of flipping the script.
Since the AFL introduced the current top-eight system in 2000, there have been five Grand Finals where the two clubs had already met in a qualifying final. In four of those five (80%), the team that lost the qualifying final came back to win the premiership.
- Brisbane 2003 – Lost to Collingwood early, then beat them when it mattered.
- Sydney 2005 – Fell to West Coast in week one, reversed it in the Grand Final. (I try to forget this happened)
- West Coast 2006 – Flipped their earlier loss to Sydney by a point.
- Hawthorn 2015 – Thrashed West Coast after losing in Perth. (This one didn’t happen either)
So what was the only exception? In 2018, when West Coast beat Collingwood both times.
Brisbane is no doubt hoping the 80% trend holds.
Why Geelong can win
System-driven success — Few clubs operate with the methodical balance of Geelong. Their structure is designed to win across every line, even without a list stacked with household names. It’s the system that makes them elite.
Jezza factor — Jeremy Cameron can tilt a game in minutes. We saw it in the qualifying final: Harris Andrews was left scrambling as Jezza tore the contest apart. If he catches fire again, Brisbane could be in real trouble.
Midfield clamp — Geelong don’t just win clearances, they shut down opponents. Hugh McCluggage managed just 14 touches in the qualifying final under Geelong’s pressure, before exploding for 37 against Collingwood last week. That contrast shows just how suffocating the Cats’ midfield can be.
Why Brisbane can win
Explosive attack — Charlie Cameron, Cam Rayner, Kai Lohmann and Cal Ah Chee bring speed and unpredictability inside 50, and when even one of them gets off the chain, the scoreboard pressure builds fast. Add in the contested marking of Logan Morris and Jack Gunston (Gallop), and Geelong’s defence will have its hands full.
Midfield depth — With or without Lachie Neale, Brisbane’s on-ball brigade remains dangerous. Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley, the Ashcroft brothers and the emerging Zac Bailey form a midfield that demands respect. Throw Rayner in to break some tackles and Geelong can’t stop them all, which forces hard choices at stoppages.
Z for Zorko — Dayne Zorko remains Brisbane’s barometer. His ability to slice through opposition defences with bold kicks through the corridor sets up wave after wave of attack. Yes, there’s risk — but when he’s on, Brisbane’s ball movement becomes electric. If Zorko controls the rebound game, the Lions could break Geelong wide open.
Norm Smith Medal contenders
TABtouch markets may lean toward the midfielders, but history shows Grand Finals often deliver surprise winners.
Will Ashcroft (Brisbane) — Last year’s medalist is already a proven big-game performer. With Geelong’s attention likely on Hugh McCluggage, Ashcroft could slip free again.
Bailey Smith (Geelong) — If the Cats get up, expect Smith to be at the centre of it. A 30+ disposal game with a goal or two would put him firmly in the frame.
Jeremy Cameron (Geelong) — The Coleman medallist can break a game open. Kick a bag on Grand Final day and it’s almost impossible to overlook.
Dayne Zorko (Brisbane) — When Zorko controls the rebound, Brisbane’s game opens up. High disposals plus architect-level influence could see him crowned. He also wasn’t far off the pace in last year’s Grand Final.
Cam Rayner (Brisbane) — Small forwards and explosive mids can steal the spotlight. Rayner’s ability to flip momentum makes him a sneaky medal chance.
Zac Bailey (Brisbane) — Dangerous around goals and increasingly impactful at stoppages. His blend of scoring power and midfield burst makes him a serious outsider’s pick.
Where to watch the AFL Grand Final in Perth
Whether you’re one of the lucky supporters cheering on your team, keen to get amongst it over the long weekend, being dragged to a grand final viewing by mates, or just simply footy mad, there’s an event or screen at a suburb near you.
Plenty of Perth pubs will be pulling out all the stops for the big dance with drinks, food,TAB terminals, and big screens galore, so you can get in amongst all the Grand Final action.
Who will win the AFL Grand Final?
This Grand Final feels like a clash of philosophies: Geelong’s system-driven control vs Brisbane’s explosiveness.
History favours the Lions after their week-one stumble, but the Cats’ system has a system that holds up in big matches.
Prediction: Brisbane by 11 points — making it back-to-back flags.
Get the AFL touch with TABtouch
If you’re looking to get in on the AFL action, Download the TABtouch app or visit your local TAB for your grand final pre-game and live bets.
Gamble responsibly. What are you really gambling with? For free and confidential support visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
