If Round 18 taught us anything, it was that no team wants to be ‘second-best’.
Sydney is still clearly the number-one side in the AFL, but Essendon, Carlton and Fremantle all blew golden opportunities to stamp themselves as the next in line.
There is now just half a game between second and sixth, and one between seventh and 13th.
Things have never been tighter, and we can’t wait to see what the final six rounds of footy has to offer.
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Games To Watch
Hawthorn vs. Collingwood (Saturday Afternoon, MCG)
This one has to be the game of the round.
It’s almost do-or-die for the Pies at this stage, with the reigning premier sitting in 12th spot on the ladder after going down to Geelong last week by four goals.
Collingwood is in real danger of missing the finals, and with a depleted side and its stars running out of form and energy, they’re susceptible to another devastating loss at the MCG.
The Hawks, on the other hand, have won eight of their last 10 games and just knocked off fifth-placed Fremantle last week by 12 points.
Hawthorn sits only one win outside the top eight, and a victory here would give them a real chance of playing finals for the first time since 2018.
Collingwood premiership player Jack Ginnvan could return for the Hawks against his old side, which would make this one even more intriguing.
Prediction
The Hawks are in great form and the Pies look to be getting worse by the week. Hawthorn should be good enough to grab the four points here, after going down by just a kick to Collingwood in Round 4.
Hawthorn by 12 points
Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs (Saturday Night, GMHBA Stadium)
Geelong is fighting to secure a top-four position, while the Western Bulldogs need to keep banking wins to make the eight. It’s all to play for in this one.
The Dogs recorded their best win of the season last week against Carlton, but the Cats at GMHBA Stadium, unbeaten in three-straight games, are a different proposition.
The Western Bulldogs have been extremely unpredictable this season, and haven’t won more than two games in a row, but their 14-point win last week kept their finals hopes alive.
They sit 10th on the ladder and want to prove they can start playing consistent footy before the end of the season.
Geelong, however, is continuing its impressive consistency, after that mid-season form slump, and their dominant wins over Essendon, Hawthorn and Collingwood over the past three weeks have reminded the competition how good their best is.
Prediction
The Bulldogs’ best looks elite, but we don’t usually see it for longer than a couple of weeks in a row. Even if they’re a fraction ‘off’ against Geelong, they’ll likely lose. Cats are in top form and don’t look like being beaten, especially at home.
Geelong by 15 points
Brisbane vs. Sydney (Sunday Afternoon, Gabba)
It’s surprising to see Brisbane in the top four after its start to the season, but their form after the mid-season bye has been exceptional.
This upcoming clash against the Swans will be their biggest test so far, and with the ladder so tight, it’ll mean a lot for the club’s premiership chances.
The Lions sit fourth after notching their sixth-consecutive win last week, although West Coast pushed them right up until the end in the 13-point win.
While Sydney is three-games clear on top of the ladder, their recent form has proven they’re vulnerable. The Swans lost to Fremantle and then St Kilda before defeating North Melbourne last weekend, so they’ll be keen to build back some form before finals.
With a few tricky fixtures to come before the end of the season, Sydney will want to grab the wins sooner rather than later to secure top spot heading into September. A victory here would go a long way.
Prediction
There is more to play for here for the Lions, who are desperate to keep their spot in the top four. They should be able to get the job done in front of their home fans, but it won’t be easy.
Brisbane by 3 points
Fremantle Dockers
Last Week
In one of the most disappointing results of the season, Fremantle went down by 13 points to Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium in Launceston.
The Dockers entered the round in third place on the ladder, but ended it in fifth, after allowing the Hawks to come from behind and snatch a win.
Freo didn’t play too poorly in the tight and contested game, but burned an opportunity to secure a top-four spot and give the club a huge confidence boost before a crucial final few rounds of the season.
If the side wants to be taken seriously, they need to win games like these.
This Week
The Dockers will take on Melbourne at Optus Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
It’s a game they’ll truly be excited about after smashing the Demons by 92 points the last time they met, back in Round 12.
The Dees could be a dangerous opposition though, after winning three of their last four games and registering an impressive 17-point win over the Bombers last week.
The victory put Melbourne back in the top eight for the first time since Round 11, and could now even be a chance of making the top four. A win here would help them on their way.
Talking Points
Take Opportunities
The Dockers wasted golden opportunities to close out the game in the third term last week.
They kicked four goals to two for the quarter and led by as much as three goals just before three-quarter time. But the wayward kicking of 4.6 allowed Hawthorn back into the game, and resulted in yet another loss in a match they could have won.
“I thought it was a game that came down to who took their chances better,” Justin Longmuir said post-match.
“We started the quarter with four points … we just needed to put a bit more of a gap (on the scoreboard) when we had that ascendancy in the game.”
They did. And they’ll need to this week when they get the chance.
Ryan’s record
Luke Ryan will run out for his 150th game this weekend, and should be celebrated for his impact on the club and team.
Especially this season, Ryan’s leadership and defensive organisation have helped the Dockers’ results substantially. He’s been a rebounding rock down back, while averaging a career-best 24.2 disposals a game.
He’ll have his hands full this week with Demons’ forwards, who have the ability to kick a big score. But when Ryan plays well, his side usually follows suit.
The fans will be hoping they can celebrate the milestone as well as the win this round.
Big Inclusions
Captain Alex Pearce and ruckman Sean Darcy should return this week, and it could make a massive difference.
Pearce has recovered from a forearm fracture, while Darcy sat out last week due to concussion protocols.
Pearce was missed down back last round, as Hawthorn captain and defender James Sicily went forward late in the game, to practicality win the match for the Hawks. An extra experienced head and lockdown backman could have changed the result entirely for Freo.
Sean Darcy’s absence in the ruck could have also made an impact on opposition ruckman Lloyd Meek, who was brilliant with 51 hitouts and 15 disposals.
Pearce and Darcy could be the difference this week. And a win against a top-eight side in such a tight season could change the side’s premiership chances entirely.
Prediction
Fremantle should get the job done here. They’ll be disappointed about last week’s result, but will have confidence after defeating Melbourne by such a big margin just a few weeks ago.
Dockers by 20 points
West Coast Eagles
Last Week
In West Coast’s first game since the departure of premiership coach Adam Simpson, the Eagles put up a brave effort against Brisbane at Optus Stadium.
They went down by just 13 points, while looking good enough to steal the match at late stages.
It was an entertaining, tough and high-scoring contest, but the Lions were just too good for longer in the end.
“We didn’t wilt and we didn’t go away from what we wanted to do,” caretaker coach Jarrad Schofield said post game.
“We wanted to be strong and we wanted to honour the contest … and I thought they did that for larger periods than what we probably have shown, but we didn’t do it for long enough.”
This Week
The Eagles take on St Kilda this week at Marvel Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Saints are coming off a disappointing 32-point loss to Adelaide last week, after beating ladder-leaders Sydney the previous round.
St Kilda will have a lot of confidence against West Coast though, after kicking five of the last six goals against them back in Round 12 to end up 14-point winners.
The Eagles haven’t won an away game all season and have now lost seven matches in a row.
Ross Lyon’s Saints will go in as strong favourites.
Talking Points
New look Eagles
New coach Jarrad Schofield threw the magnets around last week, which resulted in an energised team spirit. And you can expect even more of that this week.
Luke Edwards came into the side, he threw Ryan Maric on the wing, Harry Edwards replaced Jeremy McGovern in defence, and Schofield gave Zane Trew his first extended chance in the midfield this year.
Maric and Luke Edwards had 15 and 16 possessions each, Trew had 20 disposals, and Harry Edwards held up well in defence on the Lions’ key forwards.
“We are in an exploration period where we want to see what they can bring, but we’re not here to hand out games,” Schofield said.
There will certainly be more exploration this week, which we’re sure the fans are excited to see.
The Eagles are sure to provide another glimpse into the future against the Saints.
Happy 100th
The Eagles fans would love to celebrate Jack Waterman’s 100th game with a win this week.
The key forward has been incredible this season, kicking 41 goals in 15 games. He sits fifth in the Coleman Medal race and has slotted at least one goal in every match he’s played this year.
Waterman is crucial to the club’s future success, so creating a milestone memory would be a nice moment in what has been another tough season for West Coast.
Contest count
Contested possession was key in Brisbane’s win over the Eagles last week.
They won the contest, which resulted in more clearances, more inside 50s and more points on the scoreboard.
It won’t get any easier against the Saints either, who rank top five in the AFL for contested possessions, while West Coast ranks 17th.
If the Eagles actually want a chance at winning this game, they need to allow the tough duo of Elliot Yeo and Harley Reid to get to work.
Last week, Yeo picked up 24 disposals, 15 of them contested and had six clearances while Reid had 20 possessions, 11 of them contested and had a team-high seven clearances.
All eyes on the midfield this week.
Prediction
While a West Coast victory wouldn’t be a complete shock, St Kilda should win this one. The Eagles haven’t won an away game all year and they probably won’t start against a team that beat Sydney at this venue just two weeks ago.
Saints by 20 points
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