Round 19 produced one of the most influential weekends we’ve had this year.
The reigning premier looks down and out. Last year’s runner-up looks like a genuine threat. And crucial injuries to star players mean anything’s possible in the final four weeks of the home and away season.
With the ladder so tight and results as unpredictable as ever, Round 20 could hardly be more important.
It doesn’t get much more important for the state of Perth either, with the Western Derby all set for Saturday night.
Here’s what we can expect.
Win
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Games To Watch
Carlton vs. Port Adelaide (Marvel Stadium, Friday Night)
Both sides won last week but they were both unconvincing.
With Carlton in second place, fighting to hold onto a top-four spot, and Port Adelaide in seventh, battling to secure a spot in the finals, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
The Blues limped over the line against North Melbourne last week to end a two-game losing streak. They won by 19 points, but trailed the Roos midway through the third term, relying on a four-goal performance from Charlie Curnow to save the day.
Carlton lost one of their most important players in Tom De Koning in the clash too, fracturing his foot and being sidelined until the end of the home-and-away season.
It’s given the team and supporters a scare, with more worrying signs starting to emerge.
Port Adelaide has them too. They’re in real danger of missing finals and weren’t convincing in the win over Richmond at Adelaide Oval.
Port won by 41 points, but went goal-for-goal with the Tigers all night before the fourth term.
The Power is under extreme pressure, with their coach’s future in doubt, and no easy games to come this season.
Both sides must win. It’s going to be tough and tight.
Prediction
Carlton is the much better side, but they haven’t been convincing in recent weeks. They did beat Port by 36 points back in Round 12 though, and should have enough confidence and class to get the job done here.
Blues by 10 points
Sydney vs. Western Bulldogs
Who would have thought the Swans may be in danger of losing the top spot?
It’s probably the same amount of people who thought the Bulldogs had a chance of playing finals a couple of months ago.
Both teams have had different form lines of late, and this one is tougher to call than we all would have thought.
Sydney just lost to Brisbane Lions by a point, which means they’ve now been defeated in three of their last four games. They’ve also been dealt the devastating news that gun forward Tom Papley will miss four to six weeks with an ankle injury.
The Swans are still two games clear on top of the ladder, but unconvincing form at this part of the season suggests they’re in danger of losing it.
The Dogs are no easy beats either. They’re fresh from an incredible 47-point win over Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, just a week after defeating Carlton.
The Bulldogs sit two points outside the top eight in ninth spot on the ladder and will need to treat this game like a genuine final.
It’s all to play for.
Prediction
The Swans got over the line by 14 points last time these two sides met in Round 11, but the Bulldogs look like a different proposition this time around. It’s a tough one to call, with Dogs playing for their season and the Swans dropping off over the past month. This might just be the upset of the round.
Western Bulldogs by 1 point
Western Derby Preview
Fremantle and West Coast will meet in Western Derby 59 this Saturday night at Optus Stadium.
West Coast currently leads the all-time tally with 33 wins, to Fremantle’s 25.
The two sides last met in Round 6, where the Eagles upset the Dockers by 37 points.
Fremantle Dockers
Last Week
Things couldn’t have gone much better for the Dockers on Sunday afternoon (despite losing their captain to injury) during their 50-point smashing of Melbourne at Optus Stadium.
The victory was one of their best all season and landed them back inside the top four on the ladder.
Freo dominated every aspect of the game, kicking their second-highest score of the year (17.14.116), and could have won by a lot more had they kicked straight and not allowed the Dees to slot a few junk-time goals.
The win puts them on equal points with Brisbane in third place, and has sent a threatening message to the rest of the competition.
Talking Points
Pearce the heart
Fremantle’s heart-and-soul skipper will spend another extended period on the sidelines after fracturing the same bone that kept him out of the game for a month.
In his first game back since surgery, the key defender injured his arm again at the weekend, and is now set for another operation.
There’s no current timeline for Pearce’s return to action, which will worry fans who have seen what kind of impact he makes to the team’s defence and confidence.
All eyes will now be on the defensive structure and other key backmen to see if they can fill the void, not just for this week, but for the remainder of the season.
Clearances Kings
If the Dockers can assert the same dominance in the middle of the ground this week as they did last week, West Coast will have no chance.
Fremantle destroyed Melbourne 47-16 in clearances, after picking up the first 15 of the match.
Incredibly, the Demons became the first side since 1999 to record less than five clearances in a half of footy.
A lot had to do with the excellent ruck duo of Sean Darcy and Luke Jackson, who silenced critics with a dominant display. They gave first use to the onballers, who didn’t waste it.
Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong and Hayden Young just couldn’t stop touching the footy, picking up a combined 105 possessions and 19 clearances.
Melbourne’s top ball-winner was defender Steven May with 26, while Alex Neal-Bullen had the most clearances for Melbourne with just three for the game.
Revenge
Fremantle will still be burning from their embarrassing loss to West Coast earlier in the year.
If they want to put it past them, nothing but a thrashing here is acceptable.
In order for that to happen, the Dockers must fix up their kicking. While they slotted 17 goals against Melbourne last week, they still managed 14 behinds and missed easy opportunities to kick goals.
The forward line has been an issue all year for Freo, and while they’re managing to hit the scoreboard more frequently now, they still need to ensure they take all their chances when in front of the big sticks.
Straight kicking comes in handy during finals. Must get it right now.
West Coast Eagles
Last Week
The Eagles were dreadful against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium last week, losing by 72 points in a disappointing display.
The side was fairly competitive during the first two quarters, but kicked just two goals in the second half. They ended up with just 41 points on the board, allowing St Kilda to kick 113 of their own.
“Unfortunately today, all the things we planned for, we didn’t execute,” interim coach Jarrad Schofield said post game.
“In the end, we’re disappointed, especially with the second half.”
Talking Points
Remember the good times
The Eagles shocked the competition by beating Fremantle by seven goals in Round 6, but have won just one game from 12 efforts since.
When they beat the Dockers all those rounds ago, they’d just come off a 39-point victory over Richmond the week prior, and things were starting to click. Things are totally opposite now, but the side must use the last derby win as motivation.
“I think some of our earlier performances, including the first Derby, show that we can do it at our best,” defender Jayden Hunt said during the week.
This game means so much to the fans, and it’s the last hope for some true happiness before the season ends.
They have to do it for the supporters this week.
Tackling the big issue
In order to win a game, a side must bring pressure and intensity.
That was missing last week, especially in the forward line.
In fact, the Eagles, embarrassingly, didn’t lay a single tackle inside 50 for the game. The Saints, on the other hand, laid 23.
The lack of forward pressure allowed St Kilda to waltz out of defence with ease. West Coast were never in the contest.
The same thing can’t happen this week, or there won’t be a chance against the Dockers.
Reid, the back page. Hopefully.
West Coast fans will hopefully be seeing Harley Reid on the back page of the West Australian newspaper on Sunday morning … for the right reasons.
In Derby 58, earlier in the year, Reid had one of his best-ever matches, kicking three goals and recording seven clearances. If it wasn’t for Elliott Yeo’s brilliant 26-disposal performance, Reid would have won the Glendinning-Allan medal.
Reid, even in his first season, has shown the signs of a big-game player. Supporters and teammates will expect him to be at his best this weekend once again.
“He (Reid) normally rises to the occasion and I think he loves the atmosphere and the home games and a bit of turbulence out there on the field, so I’m hoping he can put in a big one,” Jayden Hunt said.
So do we, Jayden. So do we.
Prediction
It’s a derby, so we know anything can happen. But you just can’t go past the Dockers here. They’re top four for a reason and can’t afford to slip up this close to the finals.
Fremantle by 20 points
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