It all comes down to this.
As Tony D’Amato says in Any Given Sunday, “life’s this game of inches, (and) so is football.”
The statement is perfectly illustrated by the tightness of the ladder heading into the final round of the home and away season. One inch, here or there, could ensure the top eight looks entirely different at the conclusion of the weekend.
Fremantle, Carlton, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs are all fighting to keep their respective season alive, while Brisbane, Geelong, GWS and Port Adelaide are also desperate to secure their ranking in the top-four.
Let’s see what we can hope to expect in Round 24.
Congratulations
Before we dive into the AFL round preview — congratulations to Brannon H the winner of our season long AFL Predictor powered by TABtouch with a score of 1,960 beating Lorrat R on 1,805 and taking home the Grand Prize:
- Four Premium Tickets to Fremantle vs Port Adelaide match at Optus Stadium in Round 24;
- Four $100.00 food and beverage vouchers; and
- Four $100.00 TABtouch vouchers.
Games To Watch
Western Bulldogs vs. GWS (Sunday afternoon, Mars Stadium)
It doesn’t get much bigger for either side.
If the Dogs win, they secure a spot in the finals. They lose, and they’re in danger of being knocked out of the eight.
Remarkably, with the Bulldogs’ impressive percentage, there is a slim chance they could sneak into the top four, should other results go their way. It’s extremely unlikely but it proves their form, including the 96-point win over North Melbourne last week, is good enough to match it with the best.
GWS, on the other hand, is guaranteed top four already, but needs a win here to secure a home final.
The Giants have good form on the road anyway, but will be much more confident with a game in front of the home fans in week one of the finals.
This one is going to be fiercely contested.
Prediction: GWS has won seven matches in a row, but with how much is at stake for the Bulldogs, it’s hard to go past them. The Doggies have also won six of the past seven between the two sides. They should be able to do it in Mars.
Western Bulldogs by three points.
Carlton vs. St Kilda (Sunday afternoon, Marvel Stadium)
It’s another ‘do or die’ clash for Blues.
Carlton kept its season alive with a huge win over West Coast last week, but it won’t be as easy against St Kilda.
If the Blues win, they’re guaranteed a spot in the finals, but a loss would leave them in danger of dropping out of the eight.
They were extremely undermanned last week, but are hoping to get crucial players back for the clash against the Saints, who, despite not being in the race for finals, beat Geelong by 18 points last week.
St Kilda has started its preparation for the 2025 season early, winning five of its past seven, including victories over Sydney and Essendon, as well as the Cats.
While they can’t play footy in September, they’ve enjoyed influencing the results of the teams that can.
With the form they’re in, you wouldn’t put it past them to record another upset win.
Prediction: While the Saints look good, you can’t tip against Carlton with what is at stake. It would be an absolute disaster for the Blues to miss the finals. They’ll surely get over the line here for the fans.
Carlton by 12 points.
Fremantle Dockers
Last Week
It was yet another devastating loss for Fremantle, who recorded its third-consecutive narrow defeat.
The Dockers lost to the Giants by nine points at ENGIE Stadium, after leading by two goals at half time.
Freo gave up nine goals to six in the second term, and blew chances in the final quarter to snatch the game.
The supporters are understandably frustrated, with the side now sitting outside the top eight.
This Week
It goes without saying that this is a ‘must-win’ match for Fremantle.
The Dockers face Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium, needing four points and other results to go their way to keep the finals dream alive.
Port is coming off a big 22-point Showdown win over the Crows last week, and need a victory here to keep second spot and secure a home final.
The Power has won five games in a row and is now looking like one of the biggest threats for the flag.
It’s all to play for.
Talking Points
Home sweet home
If anything is going to get the Dockers over the line this week, it might just be the home-ground advantage.
Freo has won three of their past four against Port at Optus Stadium and has a decent record in Perth this season.
The supporters know there is no tomorrow if their side loses, so you can bet they’ll be flocking to the ground with purpose this week.
“Front up next Sunday, support us like crazy,” Justin Longmuir urged fans to do, during his post-game interview last week.
“Help us get over the line.”
It may just be the help they need.
Stop the leak
It was nice to see Fremantle attack and score last week, but it was equally as disappointing to see how many goals they leaked.
Forwards Jesse Hogan, Brent Daniels and Toby Greene combined for nine goals, contributing to the 101 points put on the board by the Giants.
Hogan, especially, dominated, with Dockers defenders disappointing.
It’s been hard without captain Alex Pearce down back, and he won’t be fit to play this week. But defenders such as Brennan Cox, Josh Draper and Luke Ryan need to step up in his absence, to ensure a big score isn’t kicked against them once again.
Port Adelaide is ranked 10th for goals scored, with a worse record than Fremantle (ranked 8th), which will please the Dockers.
They’ll know if they can stop the leaking of goals, they’ll have confidence they can kick a winning score.
Other results
Unfortunately, Fremantle requires at least one of Carlton, Western Bulldogs or Hawthorn to lose, to have a chance of playing finals.
All three clubs play prior to the Dockers game, so we’ll all know whether or not their season is still alive prior to the bounce.
If one of those sides loses, Freo just has to beat Port Adelaide to play finals.
But while the fans will certainly be watching those games, some of the players won’t.
“We can’t think too much about those other games during the week because there is nothing we can do about those results,” Sam Switkowski said during the week.
“It’s unfortunate that our fate is not necessarily in our hands anymore … Some who usually watch the footy might want to tune in and watch (the other games) but personally, I won’t be tuning in and watching anything.”
Speak for yourself, Sam. We’ll be watching.
Prediction: Fremantle has to win. Surely they can get over the line to keep the dream alive.
Freo by six points.
West Coast Eagles
Last Week
It was a disappointing performance from West Coast, who went down by 65-points to Carlton in their final home game of the season.
The Eagles were dominated for the majority of the match, and failed to produce many highlights.
In his final game, Andrew Gaff fought hard and picked up 25 touches, but the side was unable to give him a fairytale finish.
It was West Coast’s 17th loss for the year.
This Week
The Eagles face Geelong at GMHBA Stadium this week, in a match that means a lot for the home side.
The Cats were on track for a top-two finish, but after a shock defeat to St Kilda last week, they’re in real danger of dropping down the order in the eight.
In one of the strangest games of the season, Geelong let a 33-point lead slip, to lose to the Saints by 18 points at Marvel Stadium.
The Cats now need a win here to lock up a top-four finish and double chance.
Talking Points
Travel sickness
The Eagles are probably keen to see the end of what has been a pretty ordinary season. But it could seem a whole lot worse if they let their recent record at GMHBA Stadium get into their heads.
The Eagles have lost nine games in a row at Geelong’s home ground by an average of 70 points. The losing streak goes all the way back to 2006, and doesn’t look like being broken.
There have been patches of this year where the Eagles have been positive and shown glimpses of a bright future, but a thrashing to end the campaign would leave a bad taste in the mouth.
If they do get a win, or put in a strong performance, 2024 won’t seem that bad.
You’re only as good as your last game.
Turn up
“We’re really disappointed that we didn’t really turn up,” interim coach Jarrad Schofield said post game against Carlton.
“When you’re off and you’re not committed to it, through choices that you make, whether through work rate, being clean around the contest, if you collectively don’t have the numbers to get it done, you get exposed.”
It’s true, the Eagles were exposed, and they didn’t “turn up”.
It seemed disrespectful to the fans, as well as to Andrew Gaff in his farewell, and Jamie Cripps in his 250th.
In the final game in front of the home fans, you would have expected the side to put in more of an effort.
Schofield will surely ask his players to make amends this week and gain back some respect.
Let’s see what effort they bring against Geelong.
Turn up, Eagles!
2025 starts now
This game should be treated as the start of the preparation for next year for the Eagles.
As Schofield said post game, “we have a big preseason ahead of us.”
Over the past few weeks, excluding the last round, there have been positive signs. Most of them have stemmed thorough pressure and hunger for the contest – which has been a constant theme this campaign.
Carlton taught them a lesson last week, winning the contested ball by almost 30, resulting in more disposals, clearances, inside 50s and shots on goal.
The Eagles managed just four majors for the game, and conceded 14 of their own.
There were almost no positives to take out of the game.
If Schofield can use this game as preparation for next season, we can surely see a better performance and signs of a better future ahead.
The Eagles have to convince fans they’re set for a positive 2025.
Prediction: Geelong won’t let this one slip. They’re a genuine chance for the flag this season, and a big victory here would give them a double chance in September.
Geelong by 30 points.
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