Who’s Going To Win The AFL Grand Final?

AFL Grand Final Preview — Everything you need to know.

By: James Szabo

It all comes down to this.

After 24 rounds and four weeks of gripping finals, two non-Victorian teams will clash in the Grand Final for the first time since 2006, capping off one of the most competitive seasons in AFL history.

Remarkably, this will be only the second time these two clubs have met on the Grand Final stage — the first being way back in 1899, when Sydney was known as South Melbourne and Brisbane was Fitzroy.

Now, in the heartland of their origins, the Swans and Lions are set to face off in a battle where the outcome is almost impossible to call.

But we’ll take a crack at it anyway.

Sydney Swans

The Swans were the most dominant side all year, and finished top of the ladder with 17 wins and just six losses.

While they did have some sketchy moments late in the season, there’s no doubt about their favouritism coming into the Grand Final, especially after the two Finals wins against GWS and Port Adelaide.

Sydney produced an inspirational come-from-behind win against the Giants in the Qualifying Finals, before smashing the Power in the Prelim last week by six goals.

It’s coach John Longmire’s fifth Grand Final, and his troops will surely be motivated to avenge the big defeat they suffered to Geelong in the 2022 granny.

Captain Callum Mills is the heartbreak story for the Bloods, missing out on the game due to a hamstring injury, but the rest of the stars look ready to take the flag.

There’s a reason they’re favourites.

Will be hard to beat.

Brisbane Lions

The Lions have had to do it the hard way all season, and it won’t get any easier on Grand Final day.

Brisbane had a shocking start to the season and suffered big injuries to crucial players. It took a late surge in the second half of the season to climb into contention, finishing outside the top four by just two points.

Finishing fifth meant they faced three consecutive knock-out games, against Carlton, GWS and Geelong, to book a place in ‘the big dance’.

If the Lions win, they’ll be only the second team, after the Western Bulldogs in 2016, to claim the premiership from outside the top four.

Coach Chris Fagan, making his second straight grand final appearance, will be eager to move past last year’s heartbreaking four-point defeat with a triumph this time around. However, he faces the challenge of doing so without ruckman Oscar McInerney, who dislocated his shoulder twice in last week’s thrilling comeback win over Geelong.

The Lions are the underdogs here, but that’s nothing new to them. They’ve been written off time and time again this year. It wouldn’t be surprising if Brisbane proved the doubters wrong once again.

Prediction

If their last encounter is anything to go by, this grand final is shaping up to be a thriller.

In Round 19, the Lions edged out the Swans by just two points at the Gabba, coming back from a three-goal deficit at three-quarter time. It was also Brisbane’s third-straight win over Sydney, with the Lions claiming victory in five of their last six meetings.

Both teams have the firepower to pile on the points, and with clear, warm weather on the horizon, conditions are ideal for an exciting, free-flowing contest.

Sydney, however, has a habit of starting slow, and in a high-stakes match like this, falling behind early could prove costly. Brisbane’s ability to control possession and dictate the tempo might also play a key role in the outcome.

With the Lions riding a wave of inspirational finals wins, an upset is certainly on the cards.

We’re backing Chris Fagan to make history as the first coach to win a premiership without having played at AFL level.

Lions by 7 points.

Norm Smith Medal Prediction

Dayne Zorko – Zorko has been instrumental in Brisbane’s two comeback victories this finals series and was a key figure in their Round 19 win over Sydney. The Swans may look to assign someone to curb his influence, but if he can break free from a tag, he’s a serious contender to take home the medal.