Melbourne Cup 2025 Predictions | Who will win the Melbourne Cup | Melbourne Cup trophy

Melbourne Cup 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win Australia’s Biggest Race?

Your guide to the Melbourne Cup 2025 to help you pick the winner.

Update: Odds updated as of Tuesday, 4/11.

The race that stops the nation is almost here — and whether you’re in it for the fashion, the flutter, or the long lunch, Melbourne Cup Day 2025 is fast approaching. For some, it’s about strategy and form guides; for others, it’s about luck, colour, and vibes. Either way, the search for this year’s Melbourne Cup favourite has already begun.

Everyone knows that one mate who turns into a racing expert the moment the sweepstakes open — usually backed by one lucky win from years ago. But if you’d rather skip the guesswork and sound like you actually know what you’re talking about, we’ve teamed up with TABtouch to break down the Melbourne Cup favourites for 2025.

Just a quick reminder before we dive in: the Melbourne Cup remains one of the hardest races in the world to predict. So, have fun and please gamble responsibly.

Melbourne Cup favourites

Who will win the Melbourne Cup in 2025? Looking at the field, TABtouch experts have outlined three standouts. Odds as of Tuesday, 4/11.

HorseNumberJockeyTrainerOdds
Valiant King24Jye McNeilChris Waller$11.00 (Previously $9.50)
Half Yours14Jamie MelhamTony & Calvin McEvoy$8.00 (Previously $6.50)
Onesmoothoperator16Harry CoffeyBrian Ellison$31.00 (Previously $26.00)

#24 Valiant King

Improved dramatically this campaign with the addition of blinkers and ran well in last year’s Cup, well-weighted and will stay the trip.

#14 Half Yours

Given a proper staying test in the Caulfield Cup and passed with flying colours, if he runs out the two miles, his form warrants strong consideration.

#16 Onesmoothoperator

Bypassed the Geelong Cup and produced an impressive turn of foot to win the MV Cup in arrogant fashion, sure to be improved with the run under his belt.

Want to expand your Melbourne Cup knowledge? Browse TABtouch Bet Loop, their new tool where you can share your racing bets, follow punters and tipsters, and copy racing bets. Making it an easier way to learn from experts and TABtouch punters from all over Australia.

How to bet on the Melbourne Cup

For those not too familiar with placing a bet on race day, there are four ways you can be part of the action, whether you are backing the favourite or like the look of a roughie. If you’re looking to get in on the race day action, download the TABtouch app or visit your local TAB or pub with a TAB for your Melbourne Cup bets.

Mystery bets

A mystery bet lets the TABtouch system randomly select your horses based on computer-generated picks. You choose your bet type (like a trifecta or First 4), and the system does the rest. No need to study form, just cross your fingers and hope the algorithm’s on your side.

Win & place bets

The simplest and most popular options:

  • Win: On the nose, your horse finishes first.
  • Place: Your horse can finish first, second, or third (depending on field size). Many punters like to split their stake across both — for example, $5.00 each way gives you a chance at both outcomes.

Trifectas

To win a trifecta, you must pick the first three horses across the line in the correct order. You can box your trifecta (covering every possible order of your selections), but it costs more to place.

View our Melbourne Cup 2025 Trifecta tips

First 4s

This is the big Melbourne Cup punt. To win, you need to correctly select the first four horses across the line in order. Boxed First 4s allow more combinations and higher costs, but the potential returns can be significant.

Past winners

Dating back to 2010, there have been some shock results and fairytale stories in Cup history — including $101.00 Prince Of Penzance and last year’s shock winner $91.00 Knight’s Choice.

  • 2024 — Knight’s Choice: $91.00
  • 2023 — Without A Fight: $7.00
  • 2022 — Gold Trip: $21.00
  • 2021 — Verry Ellegant: $18.00
  • 2020 — Twilight Payment: $23.00
  • 2019 — Vow And Declare: $11.00
  • 2018 — Cross Counter: $9.50
  • 2017 — Rekindling: $15.00
  • 2016 — Almandin: $11.00
  • 2015 — Prince Of Penzance: $101.00
  • 2014 — Protectionist: $8.00
  • 2013 — Fiorente: $7.00
  • 2012 — Green Moon: $20.00
  • 2011 — Dunaden: $21.00
  • 2010 — Americain: $13.00

Race date & time

The Melbourne Cup will be held on Tuesday, November 4th, 2025.

The race is set for 3:00 pm (EDST) or 12:00 pm Perth time, running as Race 7 on the Flemington card.

Weather forecast for Melbourne Cup 2025

According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), race day is shaping up to be cool with showers.

Forecast: Showers, Min 9°C | Max 16°C

Cloudy. Very high chance of showers (1-10mm). Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h, becoming light in the early morning, then becoming westerly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning.

That means a soft track rating is likely, especially with rain forecast for the days prior — a key factor for punters watching horses with proven wet-track form.

How to watch and live stream the 2025 Melbourne Cup

The Melbourne Cup will be available to watch free-to-air on Channel 9 and to stream on 9Now.

Gamble responsibly. What are you really gambling with? For free and confidential support visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

This article was created in partnership with TABtouch.
Featured image credit: James Ross | AAP Image